Lie to me...

I am not a big fan of Tele and I don't quite enjoy following any TV series much. My fav channels are usually the news or sports channels and I struggle to follow the friends, the scrubs and the other tv series that people seem to like and follow. Not that they are bad or something, just that I've tried it a few times and I just don't seem to get it.

But, there is one TV series I've started following recently and I am just in awe of the series. It is called "Lie to Me" and is based on the work of Dr. Paul Eckman on human emotions. His book telling lies is a great read, I've probably spent a couple of hours reading the book and his explanation of physiological reactions to emotions is very interesting.

For instance, have you ever noticed people smile during an argument? And the other people involved in the argument get annoyed because they see it as a smirk and not a smile? Eckman's explanation is that for some people anger is a very strong emotion and during an argument, they may not be able to express it well and the body may react by camouflaging the anger with a smile! And the worst part is, the physiological reactions are sometimes beyond your control!! And then what happens is that the entire argument falls apart and the focus shifts to the smirk or smile - depending on who you are in the argument.

Interesting stuff, wish I had the time to explore this further. I would definitely love to get better at understanding and dealing with different people. Anyway, if you can't read the book, try and at least watch the TV series.


Links:

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Paul-Ekman/e/B002FSXSVI/ref=ntt_athr_dp_pel_1

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Lie-Me-Complete-Season-1-3/dp/B005MI25C6/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1397864436&sr=8-1&keywords=lie+to+me

2052 - part 3

This is probably my last post about the projections for the world in 2050's. There is just so much data and so many inferences to make, that it is hard for me to keep myself away from it. It is very interesting though, interesting because the current powerful world economies know that there will be a change, a change in power structures and their influence over the world and that they cannot go overboard with their current power status - militarily and economically.

I've read a few papers on the projections for 2050s and all of them more or less paint the picture that in the next decade China, US and India will be the top three economies in the same order by 2050. China will overtake US in the next decade or so and it will be a slow gradual transfer of power to China. It probably will keep the media interested for a while, but the world will probably accept it without too much of a shock. Nigeria for instance overtook SA as the highest GDP nation in the African continent, but that didn't really shake the world. Did it? Not yet probably, not till the common man sees the money (GDP per person) and feels he is better off than people in SA.

Anyway, here is the data from one of the reports I've read (pwc). There are numerous such reports, I'll make a list in the end of this post. The world will be a different place in terms of GDP which equals power!

But but, increase in GDP will mean very little to the poor man on the street. The GDP per person will determine how happy or how sad the people on the street are. In those terms I think the west will continue to do better, probably because there are too many mouths to feed in the east. The following image says it all. The marginal increase in the GDP per person (India for instance) will go away in paying for the high prices of goods and services, leaving the common man not very better off than where he is today.

The increased GDP in the east - particularly India and China will be driven and fueled by increased consumerism. The consumer market will continue to expand and companies will obviously benefit from the demand. But, just imagine the demand on our planet! The west will slowly lose control and I wonder if the growing east and the diminishing west will ever be able to reach a common ground on the impact of consumerism on the globe. It's time to explore the universe and look for another planet!


References:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_past_and_future_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita#Citigroup_estimates_between_2020_and_2050

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_future_GDP_(PPP)_estimates

https://www.pwc.com/en_GX/gx/world-2050/assets/pwc-world-in-2050-report-january-2013.pdf

http://www.businessinsider.com/goldmans-world-gdp-projection-for-2050-2012-11

Beyond CSR

Pepsico has adopted a great model of creating a supportive environment for the farmer community in India and has gained sufficient support from the farming community. The potato project as it is called  - http://www.cropscience.bayer.com has taken their key suppliers (the poor farmers) of India and built a highly sustainable project that benefits both the company and the community. The farmer community gets the best support to grow their produce and a consistent buyer of their produce whilst pepsico has created a chain of highly dependable and happy suppliers. They have used this model in several other countries such as Chile & China.

This is a good example of how a company can go beyond the basic CSR act of using fair trade products or a voluntarist strategy for their employees to a deeper act of creating economic and social value. M. E. Porter would probably call this - "The right way" of creating economic value.

There is so much potential for such a model to thrive in the world today. There is so much that companies can achieve just by engaging with their most important stake holder - the community. Wonder what is stopping them?

Ref: http://hbr.org/2009/09/why-sustainability-is-now-the-key-driver-of-innovation/

2052 cont'd...

Continuing with the forecasts from the 2052 book....

The book uses a model called "The Deterministic Backbone" and includes some variables such as population, energy consumption and GDP which evolve sluggishly and move with a lot of inertia. The crux of the model is that population will peak around 8.1 Billion in 2040 and will not reach the UN forecast of 9 Billion by 2030. This is because of declining fertility rates, rapid urbanization and demographic distribution of ageing population. This change in population will drive other factors such as GDP, Consumption, CO2 and Temperature levels of the world. This model forms the premise for the forecasts made in book 2052 by professor Randers.

The change in population and GDP growth will have serious implications on consumption - which in turn will directly impact businesses in terms of volumes of sales made by companies. There are several interesting forecasts that emerge from this model and I have tried to summarize them in the table below.

The three key message for me from the book are:  1> The poor will continue to remain poor despite the GDP growth because of rising food and water prices. 2> World will move towards the poles - the Norways, and Icelands will become more habitable with access to food and water 3> The sixth wave of innovation will happen and focus on sustainability and saving what ever little we will be left with! Hope you can see the grim picture of the world in 40 years time and do your bit!

Ref: http://www.2052.info/

Consumerism

I recently read a great book called "2052 - A global forecast for the next 40 years" by Professor Jorgen Randers. He argues that current human lifestyle requires the support of 1.4 planets; humanity has overshot its use of planetary resources. He makes the point that it will be physically impossible to lift the material standard of living of all nations to that of current West. For example, there is not enough raw material, fuel, and space available for everyone to have their own car thus putting a limit to consumerism. The image below shows a comparison of GDP and consumption across different countries:

Increasing volumes to increase product consumption is what gives rise to profit levels. This increased consumption is because of businesses selling huge volumes and creating a highly bloated pool of consumer needs. This increased consumption is leading to environmental degradation and breaching limits of nature.

Businesses are seen to create profit at the cost of community rather than the profits benefiting the community. Increasing consumption and focusing on profits alone can alienate business from the community. But, creating economic value alone may lead to community (customers and people who are highly important stakeholders in the business) slowly losing faith in the business model. The solution therefore is to focus on a shared value between community and business - called the "right way" of creating economic value.

I've completely "bought" into the idea that consumerism is hurting us. I have reduced the stuff I unnecessarily buy and throw away. That's one person contributing less to the ill-defined "economic value creation" process!

Ref: http://www.2052.info/