This is probably my last post about the projections for the world in 2050's. There is just so much data and so many inferences to make, that it is hard for me to keep myself away from it. It is very interesting though, interesting because the current powerful world economies know that there will be a change, a change in power structures and their influence over the world and that they cannot go overboard with their current power status - militarily and economically.
I've read a few papers on the projections for 2050s and all of them more or less paint the picture that in the next decade China, US and India will be the top three economies in the same order by 2050. China will overtake US in the next decade or so and it will be a slow gradual transfer of power to China. It probably will keep the media interested for a while, but the world will probably accept it without too much of a shock. Nigeria for instance overtook SA as the highest GDP nation in the African continent, but that didn't really shake the world. Did it? Not yet probably, not till the common man sees the money (GDP per person) and feels he is better off than people in SA.
Anyway, here is the data from one of the reports I've read (pwc). There are numerous such reports, I'll make a list in the end of this post. The world will be a different place in terms of GDP which equals power!
But but, increase in GDP will mean very little to the poor man on the street. The GDP per person will determine how happy or how sad the people on the street are. In those terms I think the west will continue to do better, probably because there are too many mouths to feed in the east. The following image says it all. The marginal increase in the GDP per person (India for instance) will go away in paying for the high prices of goods and services, leaving the common man not very better off than where he is today.
The increased GDP in the east - particularly India and China will be driven and fueled by increased consumerism. The consumer market will continue to expand and companies will obviously benefit from the demand. But, just imagine the demand on our planet! The west will slowly lose control and I wonder if the growing east and the diminishing west will ever be able to reach a common ground on the impact of consumerism on the globe. It's time to explore the universe and look for another planet!
References:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_past_and_future_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita#Citigroup_estimates_between_2020_and_2050
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_future_GDP_(PPP)_estimates
https://www.pwc.com/en_GX/gx/world-2050/assets/pwc-world-in-2050-report-january-2013.pdf
http://www.businessinsider.com/goldmans-world-gdp-projection-for-2050-2012-11
I've read a few papers on the projections for 2050s and all of them more or less paint the picture that in the next decade China, US and India will be the top three economies in the same order by 2050. China will overtake US in the next decade or so and it will be a slow gradual transfer of power to China. It probably will keep the media interested for a while, but the world will probably accept it without too much of a shock. Nigeria for instance overtook SA as the highest GDP nation in the African continent, but that didn't really shake the world. Did it? Not yet probably, not till the common man sees the money (GDP per person) and feels he is better off than people in SA.
Anyway, here is the data from one of the reports I've read (pwc). There are numerous such reports, I'll make a list in the end of this post. The world will be a different place in terms of GDP which equals power!
But but, increase in GDP will mean very little to the poor man on the street. The GDP per person will determine how happy or how sad the people on the street are. In those terms I think the west will continue to do better, probably because there are too many mouths to feed in the east. The following image says it all. The marginal increase in the GDP per person (India for instance) will go away in paying for the high prices of goods and services, leaving the common man not very better off than where he is today.
The increased GDP in the east - particularly India and China will be driven and fueled by increased consumerism. The consumer market will continue to expand and companies will obviously benefit from the demand. But, just imagine the demand on our planet! The west will slowly lose control and I wonder if the growing east and the diminishing west will ever be able to reach a common ground on the impact of consumerism on the globe. It's time to explore the universe and look for another planet!
References:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_past_and_future_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita#Citigroup_estimates_between_2020_and_2050
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_future_GDP_(PPP)_estimates
https://www.pwc.com/en_GX/gx/world-2050/assets/pwc-world-in-2050-report-january-2013.pdf
http://www.businessinsider.com/goldmans-world-gdp-projection-for-2050-2012-11
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