Continuing with the forecasts from the 2052 book....
The book uses a model called "The Deterministic Backbone" and includes some variables such as population, energy consumption and GDP which evolve sluggishly and move with a lot of inertia. The crux of the model is that population will peak around 8.1 Billion in 2040 and will not reach the UN forecast of 9 Billion by 2030. This is because of declining fertility rates, rapid urbanization and demographic distribution of ageing population. This change in population will drive other factors such as GDP, Consumption, CO2 and Temperature levels of the world. This model forms the premise for the forecasts made in book 2052 by professor Randers.
The change in population and GDP growth will have serious implications on consumption - which in turn will directly impact businesses in terms of volumes of sales made by companies. There are several interesting forecasts that emerge from this model and I have tried to summarize them in the table below.
The three key message for me from the book are: 1> The poor will continue to remain poor despite the GDP growth because of rising food and water prices. 2> World will move towards the poles - the Norways, and Icelands will become more habitable with access to food and water 3> The sixth wave of innovation will happen and focus on sustainability and saving what ever little we will be left with! Hope you can see the grim picture of the world in 40 years time and do your bit!
Ref: http://www.2052.info/
The book uses a model called "The Deterministic Backbone" and includes some variables such as population, energy consumption and GDP which evolve sluggishly and move with a lot of inertia. The crux of the model is that population will peak around 8.1 Billion in 2040 and will not reach the UN forecast of 9 Billion by 2030. This is because of declining fertility rates, rapid urbanization and demographic distribution of ageing population. This change in population will drive other factors such as GDP, Consumption, CO2 and Temperature levels of the world. This model forms the premise for the forecasts made in book 2052 by professor Randers.
The three key message for me from the book are: 1> The poor will continue to remain poor despite the GDP growth because of rising food and water prices. 2> World will move towards the poles - the Norways, and Icelands will become more habitable with access to food and water 3> The sixth wave of innovation will happen and focus on sustainability and saving what ever little we will be left with! Hope you can see the grim picture of the world in 40 years time and do your bit!
Ref: http://www.2052.info/
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